Saturday, October 09, 2010
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Hall of Fame outrage edition...
When you add arrogance to ignorance, apparently you get... the BBWAA. I completely understand this is not true in every case. I would even say the majority of the members are able to display reason and logic among some other fine traits. The problem is if you need 75% to garner a Hall pass and 40% of the voting contingency are unable or unwilling to make competent or even justifiable selections, you will have a difficult time getting the consensus you need to get some very qualified individuals into Cooperstown.
I believe you can figure out which voters are the ones who need their status revoked. They are likely the same ones who refuse to acknowledge the existence of Twitter or the internet in general as a reasonable format in which to get breaking news or information directly from the source. They are likely the same ones who read four different newspapers every morning but refuse to turn on their computer. In many cases, they have worked in the newspaper industry their whole career without ever having to adjust to any other media or even attempting to expand their horizons. They don't care about the possible validity of recent statistics (meaning VORP, win shares, runs created, etc.) or the relative importance of OPS and WHIP over BA and wins. To me, this is proof of arrogance. When you refuse to admit that there are alternatives to your way of thinking, that is pure arrogance. When you feel you should never vote for anyone in their first year of eligibility - you are arrogant beyond reason, and we'll get to you a bit later.
This is not to say that every person up for a vote should be 100% or 0%. There are very few things as a "sure-fire" Hall-of-Famer. However, an intelligent argument should be required from every voter regarding every "aye" or "nay". Let's take this year's lone electee, Andre "The Hawk" Dawson. Also known as Lionel Richie's secret twin.
If you want to vote "no" on Andre Dawson, you would make the following arguments: His career OBP was .323 - a number that in today's world would have bloggers and writers screaming that you are killing your team. His career SLG of .482 does not even finish in the top 100 of all-time and is considerably lower than such luminaries as Tim Salmon (.498) and Will Clark (.497). If you want an older example due to the higher hitting percentages in general in recent years - Dolph Camilli, a 1B for the Phillies and BROOKLYN Dodgers in the 30s and 40s has a career slash-line of .277/.387/.492. You don't really hear ol' Dolph mentioned among the all-time greats. You will claim that Andre Dawson's cumulative stats are due more to his 9,927 career AB (26th all-time) than his greatness as a hitter.
If you feel Dawson is a HOFer, you can very easily point to the 1591 career RBI, 503 2B, being one of only three players in history with 400 HR/300 SB, the eight Gold Gloves and eight All-Star appearances. You will say his 9,927 career AB are due to his greatness and ability to play at a high level longer than most other players.
It's not difficult to make a reasonable argument either way. If I asked you the reason for your voting and you gave me these arguments, I would walk away satisfied that you have done your homework even if you never saw him play. I would even be okay with you telling me you saw him play and he was one of the most feared sluggers of his generation and for a ten-year span was one of the greatest OF to roam the grass. I would give you credit for voting as a scout would vote, and although I'm a numbers guy, I think it is important when someone can pass the "eye-test" or I guess you could call this the "Sheffield theory". If I had a vote I can guarantee I would vote for Gary Sheffield every year of his eligibility regardless of what the numbers are - I won't even look them up. I will just tell you that for 12-15 years, he was one of the last people on the face of the Earth you would want to see hitting against your team in a big situation. I've never seen anyone with such bat speed and plate discipline in one combination and I would stop whatever I was doing when he was hitting just to watch. I know he has been linked to performance-enhancing drugs in his career, but I don't care. That bat speed was there when he was a 190 lb. SS for the Brewers. If I were to look, I know I could find numbers to back up my argument but I don't need to. If you were to make that argument with me regarding Dawson being a Hall-of-Famer, I wouldn't necessarily be satisfied, but I would understand.
What I don't understand is how you can vote "no" on someone for two or five or 10 years, then start voting for them because they are so close or whatever reason it is that causes some writers to hold out then change their mind. If a statistic comes along that allows you to analyze a player's career differently and change your vote (one way or another - this isn't always a positive thing as displayed by the recent backlash against Dawson's OBP) based on the new information, I applaud your open-mindedness and your willingness to admit error. If new information comes to light that changes your view of the player during his era - for instance, I didn't view Fred McGriff as a Hall of Famer when he retired for multiple reasons which added up to him not being one of the premier sluggers of his era. Now, if you look back at the time when he was in his prime, and you take away every hitter who has been linked by more than rumor to have taken PED, McGriff stands with a much more select group. This changed my view on McGriff as a HOFer.
My feeling is if you are not voting for McGwire because you feel he cheated, shouldn't that change your view of The Crime Dog? His numbers, by all accounts, are legitimate. If he played in an era where he was say, the 6th best slugging-type hitter, and four of the top five were dirty, how can that not improve his standing relative to the era? On the other hand, if you vote for McGwire and don't vote for McGriff, I can see it justified as you are voting on the pure numbers and not based at all on any substances or methods used to acquire those numbers.
If you vote for both or if you vote for neither, I am okay with it IF you back up your vote with a reasonable argument. That's all we're asking for here, people. Some reason and some logic.
Now, I mentioned earlier the writers who NEVER vote for anyone in their first year of eligibility OR the writers who feel certain players are not worthy of being selected in their first year of eligibility but will then vote for that player every year after. The writers who never vote a first-year eligbile player in, I will just say this: Just because Babe Ruth or whomever did not get 100% of the votes their first year does not make it right. The people who voted no for: Babe Ruth, Christy Mathewson, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Willie Mays, etc. are morons. This isn't a new problem for HOF voters. It does not make it right for you to follow in their footsteps. Take a minute and apply that logic to anything else in life and you will realize that is some of the worst reasoning you could ever possibly do. As for those who pick and choose which players are "worthy" of their vote in the first-year... Until we divide the Hall of Fame into Bill Simmons' Pyramid* - which is not a bad idea, but a WHOLE different blog - your job is to vote Hall of Famer vs. not a Hall of Famer. At no point in any of the voting instructions does it ever say, "If you feel this player is a HOFer, but not really one of the best of all-time, please wait one year to give this person the greatest achievement of his life and begin voting for him next year."
Since I am running long already, I will take on one more debate and, in my mind, end it swiftly. There are many who feel no DH should be voted into the HOF. These writers feel they are only playing half the game so there is no way they should be considered one of the greatest players. Have I made that side of the argument fairly? That is the reason, correct? OK, then - guess what? You are NEVER allowed to vote for an AL pitcher again. Good day, Sir.
See? Reason & logic. See you in a few years, Edgar.
* Bill Simmons' Pyramid is taken from his "The Book of Basketball" as well as his Sports Guy columns. In the book, he takes the top 96 basketball players of all time and divides them into five groups. The lower level up to the "Pantheon", which consists of the top handful of players ever to grace the court. Where this may not work as well for football, it is the perfect way to tear down and rebuild the basketball and baseball Halls of Fame. Explaining The Pyramid in a footnote of sorts is also a nod to Simmons as he used more footnotes in his book than a pianist with no hands.
I believe you can figure out which voters are the ones who need their status revoked. They are likely the same ones who refuse to acknowledge the existence of Twitter or the internet in general as a reasonable format in which to get breaking news or information directly from the source. They are likely the same ones who read four different newspapers every morning but refuse to turn on their computer. In many cases, they have worked in the newspaper industry their whole career without ever having to adjust to any other media or even attempting to expand their horizons. They don't care about the possible validity of recent statistics (meaning VORP, win shares, runs created, etc.) or the relative importance of OPS and WHIP over BA and wins. To me, this is proof of arrogance. When you refuse to admit that there are alternatives to your way of thinking, that is pure arrogance. When you feel you should never vote for anyone in their first year of eligibility - you are arrogant beyond reason, and we'll get to you a bit later.
This is not to say that every person up for a vote should be 100% or 0%. There are very few things as a "sure-fire" Hall-of-Famer. However, an intelligent argument should be required from every voter regarding every "aye" or "nay". Let's take this year's lone electee, Andre "The Hawk" Dawson. Also known as Lionel Richie's secret twin.
If you want to vote "no" on Andre Dawson, you would make the following arguments: His career OBP was .323 - a number that in today's world would have bloggers and writers screaming that you are killing your team. His career SLG of .482 does not even finish in the top 100 of all-time and is considerably lower than such luminaries as Tim Salmon (.498) and Will Clark (.497). If you want an older example due to the higher hitting percentages in general in recent years - Dolph Camilli, a 1B for the Phillies and BROOKLYN Dodgers in the 30s and 40s has a career slash-line of .277/.387/.492. You don't really hear ol' Dolph mentioned among the all-time greats. You will claim that Andre Dawson's cumulative stats are due more to his 9,927 career AB (26th all-time) than his greatness as a hitter.
If you feel Dawson is a HOFer, you can very easily point to the 1591 career RBI, 503 2B, being one of only three players in history with 400 HR/300 SB, the eight Gold Gloves and eight All-Star appearances. You will say his 9,927 career AB are due to his greatness and ability to play at a high level longer than most other players.
It's not difficult to make a reasonable argument either way. If I asked you the reason for your voting and you gave me these arguments, I would walk away satisfied that you have done your homework even if you never saw him play. I would even be okay with you telling me you saw him play and he was one of the most feared sluggers of his generation and for a ten-year span was one of the greatest OF to roam the grass. I would give you credit for voting as a scout would vote, and although I'm a numbers guy, I think it is important when someone can pass the "eye-test" or I guess you could call this the "Sheffield theory". If I had a vote I can guarantee I would vote for Gary Sheffield every year of his eligibility regardless of what the numbers are - I won't even look them up. I will just tell you that for 12-15 years, he was one of the last people on the face of the Earth you would want to see hitting against your team in a big situation. I've never seen anyone with such bat speed and plate discipline in one combination and I would stop whatever I was doing when he was hitting just to watch. I know he has been linked to performance-enhancing drugs in his career, but I don't care. That bat speed was there when he was a 190 lb. SS for the Brewers. If I were to look, I know I could find numbers to back up my argument but I don't need to. If you were to make that argument with me regarding Dawson being a Hall-of-Famer, I wouldn't necessarily be satisfied, but I would understand.
What I don't understand is how you can vote "no" on someone for two or five or 10 years, then start voting for them because they are so close or whatever reason it is that causes some writers to hold out then change their mind. If a statistic comes along that allows you to analyze a player's career differently and change your vote (one way or another - this isn't always a positive thing as displayed by the recent backlash against Dawson's OBP) based on the new information, I applaud your open-mindedness and your willingness to admit error. If new information comes to light that changes your view of the player during his era - for instance, I didn't view Fred McGriff as a Hall of Famer when he retired for multiple reasons which added up to him not being one of the premier sluggers of his era. Now, if you look back at the time when he was in his prime, and you take away every hitter who has been linked by more than rumor to have taken PED, McGriff stands with a much more select group. This changed my view on McGriff as a HOFer.
My feeling is if you are not voting for McGwire because you feel he cheated, shouldn't that change your view of The Crime Dog? His numbers, by all accounts, are legitimate. If he played in an era where he was say, the 6th best slugging-type hitter, and four of the top five were dirty, how can that not improve his standing relative to the era? On the other hand, if you vote for McGwire and don't vote for McGriff, I can see it justified as you are voting on the pure numbers and not based at all on any substances or methods used to acquire those numbers.
If you vote for both or if you vote for neither, I am okay with it IF you back up your vote with a reasonable argument. That's all we're asking for here, people. Some reason and some logic.
Now, I mentioned earlier the writers who NEVER vote for anyone in their first year of eligibility OR the writers who feel certain players are not worthy of being selected in their first year of eligibility but will then vote for that player every year after. The writers who never vote a first-year eligbile player in, I will just say this: Just because Babe Ruth or whomever did not get 100% of the votes their first year does not make it right. The people who voted no for: Babe Ruth, Christy Mathewson, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Willie Mays, etc. are morons. This isn't a new problem for HOF voters. It does not make it right for you to follow in their footsteps. Take a minute and apply that logic to anything else in life and you will realize that is some of the worst reasoning you could ever possibly do. As for those who pick and choose which players are "worthy" of their vote in the first-year... Until we divide the Hall of Fame into Bill Simmons' Pyramid* - which is not a bad idea, but a WHOLE different blog - your job is to vote Hall of Famer vs. not a Hall of Famer. At no point in any of the voting instructions does it ever say, "If you feel this player is a HOFer, but not really one of the best of all-time, please wait one year to give this person the greatest achievement of his life and begin voting for him next year."
Since I am running long already, I will take on one more debate and, in my mind, end it swiftly. There are many who feel no DH should be voted into the HOF. These writers feel they are only playing half the game so there is no way they should be considered one of the greatest players. Have I made that side of the argument fairly? That is the reason, correct? OK, then - guess what? You are NEVER allowed to vote for an AL pitcher again. Good day, Sir.
See? Reason & logic. See you in a few years, Edgar.
* Bill Simmons' Pyramid is taken from his "The Book of Basketball" as well as his Sports Guy columns. In the book, he takes the top 96 basketball players of all time and divides them into five groups. The lower level up to the "Pantheon", which consists of the top handful of players ever to grace the court. Where this may not work as well for football, it is the perfect way to tear down and rebuild the basketball and baseball Halls of Fame. Explaining The Pyramid in a footnote of sorts is also a nod to Simmons as he used more footnotes in his book than a pianist with no hands.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Trading for Halladay...
I don't believe the Yankees will be able to acquire Roy Halladay, but this belief stems from the stubbornness of the front office and refusal to admit past mistakes rather than a lack of working parts. This is a shame, because acquiring Halladay would likely propel the Yankees to the next two World Series - not just this one due to Halladay being under contract through 2010. Without Halladay, I don't feel the Yankees have enough starting pitching to make it past the Red Sox in the playoffs - if they can even hold on to their wildcard lead.
From all reports, Toronto is looking for a package of 3-4 young players with plus potential. They currently have a young outfield that could use depth and an old infield with only one player that may still be on the team in two years (Aaron Hill). The Blue Jays also are said to be looking to receive starting pitching in return.
The trade: Joba Chamberlain, Melky Cabrera and either Juan Miranda and/or Eric Duncan for Halladay.
I feel the Yankees should trade Chamberlain while he still has some cache in the league and they can still get more for him than maybe he deserves. The back and forth between the bullpen and starting rotation has appeared to mess with his emotional makeup, his mechanics and his health and the "Joba rules" from the last couple of years has turned him soft and into a 5-inning pitcher. If he is to become a front-line starter (or closer) I don't think it can be in a Yankee uniform. This season, the velocity on his fastball has averaged 92 miles an hour - down considerably from the 96/97 he averaged as a reliever AND the 94/95 he averaged as a starter before leaving a start last August with a sore shoulder. This is not a coincidence, and Chamberlain had shoulder issues when he was younger. Knowing this, would the Jays still take him as the headliner in a trade? Chamberlain still has a plus slider and a decent curveball. He also has shown flashes this year that could be encouraging for a team thinking a change of scenery could be the trick. If you are still not convinced that that Yankees should move on and get something for Joba while they can - RHB are hitting .301 against him this season with a .878 OPS. This is very troubling for a RHP. The more you look into his numbers and the more you know about him (weight issues, DUI, conditioning questions) the more you want to get WHATEVER YOU CAN for him. Hopefully, it's not too late.
As for the other players in the deal, Cabrera is often the odd man out in the Yankees' crowded outfield - especially with Eric Hinske now a member of the Yankees. He has played well enough this year to rebuild the interest in him that made him an "untouchable" for most of the past few years.
Juan Miranda and Eric Duncan are two prospects who are starting to age (26 and 24 respectively) but are blocked at their respective positions - 1B and 3B/1B - by Rodriguez and Teixeira. Miranda has a good eye and good power and has done well in 1 1/2 seasons of AAA and performed very well in the Arizona Fall League last season. Duncan's stock has dropped over the last couple of seasons but that could be partially due to learning a new position - 1B - and the ceiling that has been dropped on him due to the Yankees' stars at the corners. His batting average has dropped 3 years running at AAA, but he was the #2 Yankee prospect (Baseball America) as recently as 2006 after being #1 in 2005.
This is where I would start. If they ask for Brett Gardner (instead of Cabrera), Francisco Cervelli or Ian Kennedy - I would go with it. I would keep Phillip Hughes off-limits. The only reason I would be willing to deal Cervelli (who I think will be an above-average MLB catcher for a long time) is because the Yankees have Jesus Montero tearing up AA who is an even higher-rated prospect than Cervelli.
The known quantity of Roy Halladay would put the Yankees over the edge and make them the favorite to win the AL and possibly bring a title back to the Bronx. All it should take is the silent admission that their previously untouchable prospect is better off pitching for another team in the division for a long time... if it's not too late.
From all reports, Toronto is looking for a package of 3-4 young players with plus potential. They currently have a young outfield that could use depth and an old infield with only one player that may still be on the team in two years (Aaron Hill). The Blue Jays also are said to be looking to receive starting pitching in return.
The trade: Joba Chamberlain, Melky Cabrera and either Juan Miranda and/or Eric Duncan for Halladay.
I feel the Yankees should trade Chamberlain while he still has some cache in the league and they can still get more for him than maybe he deserves. The back and forth between the bullpen and starting rotation has appeared to mess with his emotional makeup, his mechanics and his health and the "Joba rules" from the last couple of years has turned him soft and into a 5-inning pitcher. If he is to become a front-line starter (or closer) I don't think it can be in a Yankee uniform. This season, the velocity on his fastball has averaged 92 miles an hour - down considerably from the 96/97 he averaged as a reliever AND the 94/95 he averaged as a starter before leaving a start last August with a sore shoulder. This is not a coincidence, and Chamberlain had shoulder issues when he was younger. Knowing this, would the Jays still take him as the headliner in a trade? Chamberlain still has a plus slider and a decent curveball. He also has shown flashes this year that could be encouraging for a team thinking a change of scenery could be the trick. If you are still not convinced that that Yankees should move on and get something for Joba while they can - RHB are hitting .301 against him this season with a .878 OPS. This is very troubling for a RHP. The more you look into his numbers and the more you know about him (weight issues, DUI, conditioning questions) the more you want to get WHATEVER YOU CAN for him. Hopefully, it's not too late.
As for the other players in the deal, Cabrera is often the odd man out in the Yankees' crowded outfield - especially with Eric Hinske now a member of the Yankees. He has played well enough this year to rebuild the interest in him that made him an "untouchable" for most of the past few years.
Juan Miranda and Eric Duncan are two prospects who are starting to age (26 and 24 respectively) but are blocked at their respective positions - 1B and 3B/1B - by Rodriguez and Teixeira. Miranda has a good eye and good power and has done well in 1 1/2 seasons of AAA and performed very well in the Arizona Fall League last season. Duncan's stock has dropped over the last couple of seasons but that could be partially due to learning a new position - 1B - and the ceiling that has been dropped on him due to the Yankees' stars at the corners. His batting average has dropped 3 years running at AAA, but he was the #2 Yankee prospect (Baseball America) as recently as 2006 after being #1 in 2005.
This is where I would start. If they ask for Brett Gardner (instead of Cabrera), Francisco Cervelli or Ian Kennedy - I would go with it. I would keep Phillip Hughes off-limits. The only reason I would be willing to deal Cervelli (who I think will be an above-average MLB catcher for a long time) is because the Yankees have Jesus Montero tearing up AA who is an even higher-rated prospect than Cervelli.
The known quantity of Roy Halladay would put the Yankees over the edge and make them the favorite to win the AL and possibly bring a title back to the Bronx. All it should take is the silent admission that their previously untouchable prospect is better off pitching for another team in the division for a long time... if it's not too late.
Thursday, July 09, 2009
Best-case scenario for Yankees OF
I have had a few 140-character conversations (in other words, twitter) with fellow Yankee fan and SI.com's "Hot Clicks" writer Jimmy Traina over the last couple weeks regarding the Yankee OF situation. I decided to look into the numbers and some intangibles to see what the best solution would be.
Traina is a big fan of Brett Gardner and feels Gardner should be in the OF everyday because of the speed and defense - spark - he brings to the lineup. My feeling was that Melky Cabrera has been a huge part of late-inning rallies this year and his early-season benching in favor of Gardner has brought about an urgency in his game that has turned him into a valuable member of the outfield. Recently, Jimmy brought up benching Hideki Matsui, DH'ing Johnny Damon and having an outfield of Cabrera, Gardner and Nick Swisher. Unfortunately, in typical baseball fashion, aging sluggers don't get benched like they do in other sports and the NY media would jump on Joe Girardi for further reducing the role of a favorite like Matsui. I figured I would look at all the numbers of the players involved to see if I can come up with a way to spread the at-bats around enough to keep everyone happy and increase the production of the group as a whole.
Over the last week, Matsui has been on a tear and his current OPS (on-base plus slugging pct) is a very respectable .878. I have to admit, I was shocked when I read this since when I last looked, he was hitting .248 and on pace for his lowest full-season RBI total. I guess that's what one week of 10-for-22 (four BBs) with three HRs and 11 RBI can do for you. His ISO - isolated power (basically measures extra-base hits per AB) - is now on a career-high track of .246. Although he has hit 9 of his 13 HRs in the wiffle-ball field that is the New Yankee Stadium, his overall splits are almost identical, including a higher overall SLG pct. on the road. To put ISO in a context compared to his teammates and the league, he sits behind only Mark Teixeira and A-Rod in that department on the Yankees and he ranks 16th in the AL overall in that category. If you are a fan of more conventional statistics, his SLG pct. and OPS are both in the top 25 in the AL. One thing to make note of is that Matsui has not played in the field at all this season and probably has seen the last of his days roaming the outfield in a Yankee uniform, severely limiting his options to DH or bench.
Damon has been consistently productive this season for the Yankees up until recently, and despite a recent 3-for-23 skid, still is 2nd on the team in both HR and RBI and is on pace for career highs in both those categories. Also, his SLG, OPS and ISO are all currently at career-high levels. Unlike Matsui, however, Damon's production can be greatly attributed to the new home ballpark. He has had 152 at-bats so far both at home and away and the difference in production is STAGGERING. At home, Damon's line reads .289/.393/.592 while on the road, it is .270/.333/.447. The difference in OPS is .205! To put this in perspective, at home his numbers are similar (almost identical) to Justin Morneau's and would rank him 3rd in the AL. Using just his road splits, his numbers are closest in line to... Melky Cabrera (more on him in a bit). Damon's defensive woes are well-known as his arm has now degraded to sub-Bernie levels, his range has decreased along with his overall speed this year and he has had increased difficulty making the plays he should based on his career-low .970 fielding pct. and 4 errors.
Cabrera started off the season on the bench when Gardner was given the starting CF job out of camp. When he was given the opportunity to play, he took advantage and through June 1, was one of the MVPs of the struggling Yankees, hitting .323 while slugging .481 and coming up with a few big late-inning hits. Cabrera was unofficially given back the starting CF job on June 1 and it appears that he has reverted back to a streaky singles hitter with a poor eye and limited power. Since June 1, Melky has hit just .218 while getting on base less than 30% of the time, unacceptable for a contending team with a supposedly deep lineup. He also has hit only three home runs in this timeframe (101 ABs) and his slugging pct. is .366, which would be low for a reserve middle-infielder. In fact, it is the same slugging pct. as Brendan Harris, to give a comparison as we have with the other players. It seems as if playing everyday either takes a greater toll than average on Cabrera's body - preventing him from being consistent at the plate - or he takes his "foot off the gas" and cannot hit without the pressure of fighting for playing time. Either way, Cabrera has failed to live up to the offensive potential he has given glimpses of since coming into the league in 2005. As pitchers adjust to him, he has been unable to make adjustments of his own. From 2006-2008, his BA, OBP and SLG have decreased each year - not what you hope to see from a young player who should be entering his prime. One area which he has been consistent in has been defensively. He has only one error this year despite being forced to play all three outfield positions at different times, has shown the ability to make the occasional outstanding play and has displayed above-average range and a good arm.
On May 12, after an 0-for-4 day leading off against Roy Halladay in a 5-1 loss that dropped the Yankees two games under .500 - and at the time 6 1/2 games behind the division-leading Blue Jays, it appeared Gardner was a career backup ideally suited as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. He had failed to provide the spark the Yankees were hoping he would after a stellar spring training earned him the starting CF job in an upset. He was hitting .214 with a OBP of .273 and a SLG that sat at .257. His OPS of .530 ranked him 113th out of 118 players with as many plate appearances during this time. Due to his inability to get on base (3 BB/12 K), he had stolen only 6 bases to this point in the season.
To be blunt - he stunk.
The following day, Gardner was scheduled to sit but was forced into action due to an injury to Matsui. He responded with his first career HR and first 3B of the season in a 8-2 Yankee victory. Since that point, he has pulled a David Ortiz-like renaissance. In fact, his resurgence has been more pronounced than Papi's, since Ortiz is still hitting .223. Along with the return of Rodriguez, his turnaround has coincided with the Yankees' improvement since that season-low point. From May 12 through yesterday's game, in 108 AB, Gardner has hit .333 with an OBP over .400. He has even been hitting with some unexpected power since this point, chugging out four triples and blasting three HRs. Of course the most important part of his offensive game is his speed, and he has not disappointed, stealing 11 bases while being caught twice. Defensively, Gardner has been impressive throughout the season, accruing three assists while committing only one error. He has shown extensive range and when playing CF can shade over a bit to RF to compensate for Swisher's limited range.
I will not delve too deeply into Swisher's stats, but I cannot stress the importance of his presence in the lineup. He has taken Jason Giambi's (underrated) role both in the clubhouse and on the field without being quite the defensive liabilty Giambi was. He currently is 3rd in the league in pitches per plate appearance (4.23), he is 2nd in walks per plate appearance ( .161), leads the Yankees in Sacrifice Flies (4) - which is a skill they have had a staggering amount of difficulty with this season - and is in the top 25 in the league in isolated power.
OK - maybe I will delve into his statistics a bit. What I'm telling you is he makes the pitcher work hard. To borrow a bit from Dos Equis... "he is the most interesting .240 hitter alive." Much like Giambi, his eye never goes through slumps. In the month of May, Swisher hit .150 yet still managed an OBP of .311. That is the equivalent of a PG who is in a horrible shooting slump but manages to increase his assists. He doesn't allow his personal struggles to prevent him from helping the team. His bat should be in the lineup almost every single day.
So, now that we have gone through all these numbers and we know a bit more about our options, what is the best plan? The secret lies in platooning and age factors. Both Matsui and Damon are 35 and have been frail or banged-up for much of the last year or two. Matsui's knee (or is it his arm - at this point I can't keep track) is so bad he can't even play the field. Damon has battled numerous ailments this year and though he is one of the toughest players around (1 DL stint in 15 seasons) and wants to play through the pain, he is not able to perform at as high a level when hurt as he did when younger. This would suggest that Matsui - and especially Damon - would be best served with days off througout the season so they can be in peak condition for the pennant run in September and October. When would the Yankees be best served to give them these days off?
For Damon, his .311 OBP and 1 stolen base against lefties both home and away while hitting toward the top of the lineup is not doing the Yankees any favors. Add in his defensive woes and he is hurting them more than helping. Cabrera would be the perfect candidate to take his place when facing lefties. Cabrera's OBP against southpaws is .350 and he has hit for considerably more power against lefties - a .500 SLG pct. compared to Damon's .414. Add in the fact that Cabrera often does this from the 7 or 8 hole in the lineup and it makes the Yankee lineup that much deeper. Gardner is also much stronger against righties, so if the Yankees are facing a few in a row and you don't want Damon to sit for a stretch of games, you can sit Gardner against one or two and move Melky to CF. When would Matsui sit? He appears to have trouble with RHP at home (.242/.320/.418) and although you wouldn't sit him everyday, that would be a great occasion to give him a breather while giving Cabrera a chance to play his strengths. You would also improve your defense considerably by moving Damon to DH and allowing Cabrera, Gardner and Swisher to man the OF.
By using L/R and Home/Away splits as well as knowing your players' strengths, you can put the best team on the field on a regular basis without hurting the egos of millionaires or stifling the growth of your possible future.
Oh, and Jimmy, since it looks like Cabrera will be the closest thing to odd man out in my scenario, I guess your man-crush on Gardner is well-deserved... and shared.
Traina is a big fan of Brett Gardner and feels Gardner should be in the OF everyday because of the speed and defense - spark - he brings to the lineup. My feeling was that Melky Cabrera has been a huge part of late-inning rallies this year and his early-season benching in favor of Gardner has brought about an urgency in his game that has turned him into a valuable member of the outfield. Recently, Jimmy brought up benching Hideki Matsui, DH'ing Johnny Damon and having an outfield of Cabrera, Gardner and Nick Swisher. Unfortunately, in typical baseball fashion, aging sluggers don't get benched like they do in other sports and the NY media would jump on Joe Girardi for further reducing the role of a favorite like Matsui. I figured I would look at all the numbers of the players involved to see if I can come up with a way to spread the at-bats around enough to keep everyone happy and increase the production of the group as a whole.
Over the last week, Matsui has been on a tear and his current OPS (on-base plus slugging pct) is a very respectable .878. I have to admit, I was shocked when I read this since when I last looked, he was hitting .248 and on pace for his lowest full-season RBI total. I guess that's what one week of 10-for-22 (four BBs) with three HRs and 11 RBI can do for you. His ISO - isolated power (basically measures extra-base hits per AB) - is now on a career-high track of .246. Although he has hit 9 of his 13 HRs in the wiffle-ball field that is the New Yankee Stadium, his overall splits are almost identical, including a higher overall SLG pct. on the road. To put ISO in a context compared to his teammates and the league, he sits behind only Mark Teixeira and A-Rod in that department on the Yankees and he ranks 16th in the AL overall in that category. If you are a fan of more conventional statistics, his SLG pct. and OPS are both in the top 25 in the AL. One thing to make note of is that Matsui has not played in the field at all this season and probably has seen the last of his days roaming the outfield in a Yankee uniform, severely limiting his options to DH or bench.
Damon has been consistently productive this season for the Yankees up until recently, and despite a recent 3-for-23 skid, still is 2nd on the team in both HR and RBI and is on pace for career highs in both those categories. Also, his SLG, OPS and ISO are all currently at career-high levels. Unlike Matsui, however, Damon's production can be greatly attributed to the new home ballpark. He has had 152 at-bats so far both at home and away and the difference in production is STAGGERING. At home, Damon's line reads .289/.393/.592 while on the road, it is .270/.333/.447. The difference in OPS is .205! To put this in perspective, at home his numbers are similar (almost identical) to Justin Morneau's and would rank him 3rd in the AL. Using just his road splits, his numbers are closest in line to... Melky Cabrera (more on him in a bit). Damon's defensive woes are well-known as his arm has now degraded to sub-Bernie levels, his range has decreased along with his overall speed this year and he has had increased difficulty making the plays he should based on his career-low .970 fielding pct. and 4 errors.
Cabrera started off the season on the bench when Gardner was given the starting CF job out of camp. When he was given the opportunity to play, he took advantage and through June 1, was one of the MVPs of the struggling Yankees, hitting .323 while slugging .481 and coming up with a few big late-inning hits. Cabrera was unofficially given back the starting CF job on June 1 and it appears that he has reverted back to a streaky singles hitter with a poor eye and limited power. Since June 1, Melky has hit just .218 while getting on base less than 30% of the time, unacceptable for a contending team with a supposedly deep lineup. He also has hit only three home runs in this timeframe (101 ABs) and his slugging pct. is .366, which would be low for a reserve middle-infielder. In fact, it is the same slugging pct. as Brendan Harris, to give a comparison as we have with the other players. It seems as if playing everyday either takes a greater toll than average on Cabrera's body - preventing him from being consistent at the plate - or he takes his "foot off the gas" and cannot hit without the pressure of fighting for playing time. Either way, Cabrera has failed to live up to the offensive potential he has given glimpses of since coming into the league in 2005. As pitchers adjust to him, he has been unable to make adjustments of his own. From 2006-2008, his BA, OBP and SLG have decreased each year - not what you hope to see from a young player who should be entering his prime. One area which he has been consistent in has been defensively. He has only one error this year despite being forced to play all three outfield positions at different times, has shown the ability to make the occasional outstanding play and has displayed above-average range and a good arm.
On May 12, after an 0-for-4 day leading off against Roy Halladay in a 5-1 loss that dropped the Yankees two games under .500 - and at the time 6 1/2 games behind the division-leading Blue Jays, it appeared Gardner was a career backup ideally suited as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. He had failed to provide the spark the Yankees were hoping he would after a stellar spring training earned him the starting CF job in an upset. He was hitting .214 with a OBP of .273 and a SLG that sat at .257. His OPS of .530 ranked him 113th out of 118 players with as many plate appearances during this time. Due to his inability to get on base (3 BB/12 K), he had stolen only 6 bases to this point in the season.
To be blunt - he stunk.
The following day, Gardner was scheduled to sit but was forced into action due to an injury to Matsui. He responded with his first career HR and first 3B of the season in a 8-2 Yankee victory. Since that point, he has pulled a David Ortiz-like renaissance. In fact, his resurgence has been more pronounced than Papi's, since Ortiz is still hitting .223. Along with the return of Rodriguez, his turnaround has coincided with the Yankees' improvement since that season-low point. From May 12 through yesterday's game, in 108 AB, Gardner has hit .333 with an OBP over .400. He has even been hitting with some unexpected power since this point, chugging out four triples and blasting three HRs. Of course the most important part of his offensive game is his speed, and he has not disappointed, stealing 11 bases while being caught twice. Defensively, Gardner has been impressive throughout the season, accruing three assists while committing only one error. He has shown extensive range and when playing CF can shade over a bit to RF to compensate for Swisher's limited range.
I will not delve too deeply into Swisher's stats, but I cannot stress the importance of his presence in the lineup. He has taken Jason Giambi's (underrated) role both in the clubhouse and on the field without being quite the defensive liabilty Giambi was. He currently is 3rd in the league in pitches per plate appearance (4.23), he is 2nd in walks per plate appearance ( .161), leads the Yankees in Sacrifice Flies (4) - which is a skill they have had a staggering amount of difficulty with this season - and is in the top 25 in the league in isolated power.
OK - maybe I will delve into his statistics a bit. What I'm telling you is he makes the pitcher work hard. To borrow a bit from Dos Equis... "he is the most interesting .240 hitter alive." Much like Giambi, his eye never goes through slumps. In the month of May, Swisher hit .150 yet still managed an OBP of .311. That is the equivalent of a PG who is in a horrible shooting slump but manages to increase his assists. He doesn't allow his personal struggles to prevent him from helping the team. His bat should be in the lineup almost every single day.
So, now that we have gone through all these numbers and we know a bit more about our options, what is the best plan? The secret lies in platooning and age factors. Both Matsui and Damon are 35 and have been frail or banged-up for much of the last year or two. Matsui's knee (or is it his arm - at this point I can't keep track) is so bad he can't even play the field. Damon has battled numerous ailments this year and though he is one of the toughest players around (1 DL stint in 15 seasons) and wants to play through the pain, he is not able to perform at as high a level when hurt as he did when younger. This would suggest that Matsui - and especially Damon - would be best served with days off througout the season so they can be in peak condition for the pennant run in September and October. When would the Yankees be best served to give them these days off?
For Damon, his .311 OBP and 1 stolen base against lefties both home and away while hitting toward the top of the lineup is not doing the Yankees any favors. Add in his defensive woes and he is hurting them more than helping. Cabrera would be the perfect candidate to take his place when facing lefties. Cabrera's OBP against southpaws is .350 and he has hit for considerably more power against lefties - a .500 SLG pct. compared to Damon's .414. Add in the fact that Cabrera often does this from the 7 or 8 hole in the lineup and it makes the Yankee lineup that much deeper. Gardner is also much stronger against righties, so if the Yankees are facing a few in a row and you don't want Damon to sit for a stretch of games, you can sit Gardner against one or two and move Melky to CF. When would Matsui sit? He appears to have trouble with RHP at home (.242/.320/.418) and although you wouldn't sit him everyday, that would be a great occasion to give him a breather while giving Cabrera a chance to play his strengths. You would also improve your defense considerably by moving Damon to DH and allowing Cabrera, Gardner and Swisher to man the OF.
By using L/R and Home/Away splits as well as knowing your players' strengths, you can put the best team on the field on a regular basis without hurting the egos of millionaires or stifling the growth of your possible future.
Oh, and Jimmy, since it looks like Cabrera will be the closest thing to odd man out in my scenario, I guess your man-crush on Gardner is well-deserved... and shared.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
25 things...
So, multiple friends have now "tagged" me in their 25 things about them posts. It's kind of like the GQ "Things I've Learned" article, which is one of my favorite things to read on a regular basis. I guess it's my turn now.
1. I spent all day contemplating what to write here. Do I go random things about me or things I've learned. A mixture of both, perhaps?
2. I've forgotten the absolute best things that I thought of. They were good, too.
3. The next 12 months of my life will probably be the biggest year I'll ever have. It could include my first house and my first child. Hopefully in that order.
4. There is not a day that goes by that I don't think how lucky I am to have Diana. Not a single day.
5. I know nobody is perfect. She's about as close as I think anyone could get.
6. I've actually loved three women in my life (outside of family, obviously) and hope it says something about me that I am still friends with the first two - even if we may lose touch for years at a time.
7. I feel pretty secure that the third one is the last one. I hope I'm her last as well.
8. In about a four-month span before my wedding, I turned $1.52 into over $2000.00 playing online poker.
9. I wouldn't believe that last one either if you said it to me. However, Diana was witness to it all so feel free to ask her about it.
10. I've worked 80 hours a week and I've worked 15 hours a week. I don't need to tell you which one is more enjoyable.
11. Hard work is very overrated. Smart work is so much better.
12. People are much nicer and kinder in Arizona. People work harder and smarter in NY, though.
13. Number 12 makes being in a position of limited authority very difficult for me. I can't accept poor work ethic and no effort. This makes me the asshole - which sometimes I am, anyway.
14. I really detest having to spend a half-hour 2-to-3 times a week shaving my head. After a house, hellooooo laser hair removal. If I think it will work.
15. I promised myself after I lost about 30 lbs. in 2003 or so that I would never let myself get that big again. Happiness can make you break promises, apparently.
16. I really enjoy video games. Always have, and probably always will.
17. I was lucky to have had older friends while I was in my 20's that I learned quite a bit from.
18. I really want to get back into softball and acting. The first is more likely than the second.
19. I miss the cheers from crowds. Even more, I miss doing a song well.
20. This is supposed to be 25 things about me you don't know. It's not reading like that as I go back through what I wrote. There - now you know something you didn't before.
21. I just won a pot-limit Omaha tournament online in the last 20 minutes. It should never be that fast to go through ten people.
22. I don't have any tattoos. I haven't found anything that I want to have burned into me that I'll feel like explaining to my grandkids. I'm pretty confident that will change when I have children.
23. I have had the following jobs - some for as little as 4 hours: retail in a mall, sportswriter, deli clerk, packer at Yellow Freight, server (many times), host at a Ground Round, asst mgr at Big Dogs, bartender, tennis coach/teaching pro, bread delivery guy, musician, poker player, DJ, business owner, poker dealer, poker floor manager, business co-owner/VP, behavior coach, transportation director, chauffeur, PE teacher, auto sales, internet sales rep, furniture delivery, flooring installation, bookie. Don't ever say that life experience doesn't count. Especially to someone with a doctorate in it.
24. Right now is one of those times, as I was about to close the laptop and head to bed, that I thought about how much I love Diana and how lucky I am to have her. Sorry if you've vomited at this point.
25. It's been three days since I started this and had much grander plans. I'm giving up and posting right about now before I start my night work.
1. I spent all day contemplating what to write here. Do I go random things about me or things I've learned. A mixture of both, perhaps?
2. I've forgotten the absolute best things that I thought of. They were good, too.
3. The next 12 months of my life will probably be the biggest year I'll ever have. It could include my first house and my first child. Hopefully in that order.
4. There is not a day that goes by that I don't think how lucky I am to have Diana. Not a single day.
5. I know nobody is perfect. She's about as close as I think anyone could get.
6. I've actually loved three women in my life (outside of family, obviously) and hope it says something about me that I am still friends with the first two - even if we may lose touch for years at a time.
7. I feel pretty secure that the third one is the last one. I hope I'm her last as well.
8. In about a four-month span before my wedding, I turned $1.52 into over $2000.00 playing online poker.
9. I wouldn't believe that last one either if you said it to me. However, Diana was witness to it all so feel free to ask her about it.
10. I've worked 80 hours a week and I've worked 15 hours a week. I don't need to tell you which one is more enjoyable.
11. Hard work is very overrated. Smart work is so much better.
12. People are much nicer and kinder in Arizona. People work harder and smarter in NY, though.
13. Number 12 makes being in a position of limited authority very difficult for me. I can't accept poor work ethic and no effort. This makes me the asshole - which sometimes I am, anyway.
14. I really detest having to spend a half-hour 2-to-3 times a week shaving my head. After a house, hellooooo laser hair removal. If I think it will work.
15. I promised myself after I lost about 30 lbs. in 2003 or so that I would never let myself get that big again. Happiness can make you break promises, apparently.
16. I really enjoy video games. Always have, and probably always will.
17. I was lucky to have had older friends while I was in my 20's that I learned quite a bit from.
18. I really want to get back into softball and acting. The first is more likely than the second.
19. I miss the cheers from crowds. Even more, I miss doing a song well.
20. This is supposed to be 25 things about me you don't know. It's not reading like that as I go back through what I wrote. There - now you know something you didn't before.
21. I just won a pot-limit Omaha tournament online in the last 20 minutes. It should never be that fast to go through ten people.
22. I don't have any tattoos. I haven't found anything that I want to have burned into me that I'll feel like explaining to my grandkids. I'm pretty confident that will change when I have children.
23. I have had the following jobs - some for as little as 4 hours: retail in a mall, sportswriter, deli clerk, packer at Yellow Freight, server (many times), host at a Ground Round, asst mgr at Big Dogs, bartender, tennis coach/teaching pro, bread delivery guy, musician, poker player, DJ, business owner, poker dealer, poker floor manager, business co-owner/VP, behavior coach, transportation director, chauffeur, PE teacher, auto sales, internet sales rep, furniture delivery, flooring installation, bookie. Don't ever say that life experience doesn't count. Especially to someone with a doctorate in it.
24. Right now is one of those times, as I was about to close the laptop and head to bed, that I thought about how much I love Diana and how lucky I am to have her. Sorry if you've vomited at this point.
25. It's been three days since I started this and had much grander plans. I'm giving up and posting right about now before I start my night work.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Christmas in AZ and big Yankee news on the road!
Driving along one of the busiest retail and restaurant corridors (Bell Rd.) I've ever known in my life, some observations were made.
With so many retail stores going out of business, isn't this really just a major financial correction? There's no way five or six major chain electronic stores should survive within a one-mile radius. People talk about the destruction of "Main St." and try to blame Wall St. It's our own fault for allowing Wall St. to take over "Main St.". Linens and Things? I could go buy 75% of their products for 2/3 the price before they started their going out of business sales. All you had to do was search some. That is a correction that needed to be made. They should be out of business. My only regret is that we can't put two or three REAL mom-and-pop stores in it's place and let them play "Survivor" the retail version. Sure, the prices may be a bit more because they aren't able to order millions of items at a pop for the major wholesale discount, however the service and the long-term relationship between consumer and store would be better. Considerably. The American economy will be fine eventually (well, consumer spending, anyway). We're just in a correction phase. I'm getting bored with my tangent so on to baseball...
Marky Mark and the Yankee Bunch...
When I stopped for a bite to eat today, I went to ESPN MVP on my phone and the headline that greeted me was a wonderful Christmas present... the Yankees reportedly have agreed to sign Mark Teixeira to an eight-year, $180 million contract. This is the one deal I was hoping for all off-season. More than CC, more than AJ, more than DL, AP or any other mish-mosh of initials you can throw up on the mound. The Yankees absolutely needed to improve their starting pitching, however there was not one single pitcher out there who I thought could improve the Yankees more than Teixeira. Not only will he bring his .3xx BA, 30-something HRs, .4xx OPB and 120-or-so RBI to the middle of the Yankee lineup, he will improve the hitters around him and provide protection for Alex Rodriguez that he has not had since Matsui was consistently healthy. Just as importantly, his defense at first will be the best since Nick Johnson left for the infirmary, and Tino before him. This will help your pitching staff and your infielders' defense. As a wise baseball man pointed out today over the phone, it will increase the confidence of the other infielders and that can only help their all-around game.
I criticized the CC signing when it happened, saying if it prevented the Yankees from getting Teixeira, than it wasn't worth it. I still think CC could fall apart and follow the same career path as Fernando Valenzuela, Sid Fernandez and other plus-sized pitchers, not to mention the 524 (!) total innings that have been logged on his arm the last two seasons. However, now that they have Teixeira, I'm at peace with the signing and hope he proves me wrong and can be the true ace the Yankees have been missing for longer than people realize.
With that in mind and with everyone calling the radio stations saying, "Oh, hey guys this is Joe from Schmoeville on the car phone. This is just another case of the Yankees trying to buy another championship. They are everything that's wrong with baseball...... yada yada yada..." I bring to you the five predictions every Yankee fan (myself included) is dreading to see come to fruition this year.
1. Derek Jeter becomes David Eckstein offensively and continues his gradual decline defensively.
Jeter's home run total has dropped five consecutive years. His slugging percentage has dropped eighty points in the past three years. The following statistics have all dropped three consecutive years: BA, OBP, BB, hits, total bases and SB. This usually does not bode well. Defensively, the worst kept secret in baseball has been Jeter's decreasing range and his slowly eroding arm. This season, Jeter will turn 35 and the wheels will really start to come off of his game.
2. Sabathia will begin the season with this stat line...
1-4, 7.76 ERA, 26.2 IP, 34 H, 23 ER, 14 BB
... just like he did in 2007. The only difference is this time - in NY - he won't be able to handle the pressure, will press a bit too much and will implode and be on the DL by June 1.
3. A-Rod will get an STD from Madonna and it will affect his production both on the field and off (I kid, I kid).
4. Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera and Nick Swisher (throw in Nady if you're REALLY paranoid) will all play to the worst of their abilities.
Cano is a very slow starter, inconsistent and can play with his head up his rear for weeks at a time. Melky seems to look more and more like a below-average major leaguer (.642 OPS in 2008) and Swisher has a career BA of .244. If they all have below-average seasons, there may not be enough to make up for the holes they would create in the offense.
5. Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada and Chien-Ming Wang are unable to return to pre-injury form.
Although you will be hard-pressed to find people who say Wang will not return to form (it was a toe injury after all), this is a worst-case scenario type of situation. In the cases of Matsui and Posada, it is a very real possibility that they may not be on the field consistently. Matsui has missed 200 games over the past three seasons and although he has produced when he's played, there's been a noticeable loss of speed and power during the time he's been out there. Posada had a Ray Lewis-worthy resurgence in 2007 but was on pace for his lowest OPS since 1999 when he was injured last year. He also will begin the 2009 season with 37 years on this earth. There aren't many catchers who can be productive at that age.
So these are the worst-case predictions. I hope none of them come true...
With so many retail stores going out of business, isn't this really just a major financial correction? There's no way five or six major chain electronic stores should survive within a one-mile radius. People talk about the destruction of "Main St." and try to blame Wall St. It's our own fault for allowing Wall St. to take over "Main St.". Linens and Things? I could go buy 75% of their products for 2/3 the price before they started their going out of business sales. All you had to do was search some. That is a correction that needed to be made. They should be out of business. My only regret is that we can't put two or three REAL mom-and-pop stores in it's place and let them play "Survivor" the retail version. Sure, the prices may be a bit more because they aren't able to order millions of items at a pop for the major wholesale discount, however the service and the long-term relationship between consumer and store would be better. Considerably. The American economy will be fine eventually (well, consumer spending, anyway). We're just in a correction phase. I'm getting bored with my tangent so on to baseball...
Marky Mark and the Yankee Bunch...
When I stopped for a bite to eat today, I went to ESPN MVP on my phone and the headline that greeted me was a wonderful Christmas present... the Yankees reportedly have agreed to sign Mark Teixeira to an eight-year, $180 million contract. This is the one deal I was hoping for all off-season. More than CC, more than AJ, more than DL, AP or any other mish-mosh of initials you can throw up on the mound. The Yankees absolutely needed to improve their starting pitching, however there was not one single pitcher out there who I thought could improve the Yankees more than Teixeira. Not only will he bring his .3xx BA, 30-something HRs, .4xx OPB and 120-or-so RBI to the middle of the Yankee lineup, he will improve the hitters around him and provide protection for Alex Rodriguez that he has not had since Matsui was consistently healthy. Just as importantly, his defense at first will be the best since Nick Johnson left for the infirmary, and Tino before him. This will help your pitching staff and your infielders' defense. As a wise baseball man pointed out today over the phone, it will increase the confidence of the other infielders and that can only help their all-around game.
I criticized the CC signing when it happened, saying if it prevented the Yankees from getting Teixeira, than it wasn't worth it. I still think CC could fall apart and follow the same career path as Fernando Valenzuela, Sid Fernandez and other plus-sized pitchers, not to mention the 524 (!) total innings that have been logged on his arm the last two seasons. However, now that they have Teixeira, I'm at peace with the signing and hope he proves me wrong and can be the true ace the Yankees have been missing for longer than people realize.
With that in mind and with everyone calling the radio stations saying, "Oh, hey guys this is Joe from Schmoeville on the car phone. This is just another case of the Yankees trying to buy another championship. They are everything that's wrong with baseball...... yada yada yada..." I bring to you the five predictions every Yankee fan (myself included) is dreading to see come to fruition this year.
1. Derek Jeter becomes David Eckstein offensively and continues his gradual decline defensively.
Jeter's home run total has dropped five consecutive years. His slugging percentage has dropped eighty points in the past three years. The following statistics have all dropped three consecutive years: BA, OBP, BB, hits, total bases and SB. This usually does not bode well. Defensively, the worst kept secret in baseball has been Jeter's decreasing range and his slowly eroding arm. This season, Jeter will turn 35 and the wheels will really start to come off of his game.
2. Sabathia will begin the season with this stat line...
1-4, 7.76 ERA, 26.2 IP, 34 H, 23 ER, 14 BB
... just like he did in 2007. The only difference is this time - in NY - he won't be able to handle the pressure, will press a bit too much and will implode and be on the DL by June 1.
3. A-Rod will get an STD from Madonna and it will affect his production both on the field and off (I kid, I kid).
4. Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera and Nick Swisher (throw in Nady if you're REALLY paranoid) will all play to the worst of their abilities.
Cano is a very slow starter, inconsistent and can play with his head up his rear for weeks at a time. Melky seems to look more and more like a below-average major leaguer (.642 OPS in 2008) and Swisher has a career BA of .244. If they all have below-average seasons, there may not be enough to make up for the holes they would create in the offense.
5. Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada and Chien-Ming Wang are unable to return to pre-injury form.
Although you will be hard-pressed to find people who say Wang will not return to form (it was a toe injury after all), this is a worst-case scenario type of situation. In the cases of Matsui and Posada, it is a very real possibility that they may not be on the field consistently. Matsui has missed 200 games over the past three seasons and although he has produced when he's played, there's been a noticeable loss of speed and power during the time he's been out there. Posada had a Ray Lewis-worthy resurgence in 2007 but was on pace for his lowest OPS since 1999 when he was injured last year. He also will begin the 2009 season with 37 years on this earth. There aren't many catchers who can be productive at that age.
So these are the worst-case predictions. I hope none of them come true...
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Therapy...
Before I begin the actual blog part of this post, I want to comment that I always say I'm going to start keeping up with this blog then a year or two later I make my way back with an update. I read all my old posts, feel pretty content with my writing and my opinions and say, "Man, I could be one of "those" bloggers that actually has readers. Then I disappear from blogging for....ever. I really would like that to change - however, I'm done promising that I'll write more, when I probably won't.
Tonight is more of a therapeutic blog and not quite the sports rant that I've done on here.
Rudy died.
(Who?!?!?)
Rudy. Rudy was the runt piglet of a litter born yesterday at The ACES ranch. The ACES is a private K-12 school for students with special needs that has a ranch for animal therapy. One of the pigs had a litter and we were there to witness. We've raised two other pigs by hand and although we were hesitant, we knew the runt wouldn't have made it through the night on his own. We took him home and fed him, wrapped him in a blanket, took him to bed and Diana slept (kinda) with this baby pig the size of a hamster by her neck because he liked the warmth and her pulse. When she left this morning I took over and got to bond. Basically, we fed him every half-hour and he was almost always in our arms throughout the day.
He seemed to be doing ok overall, though we both were "cautiously optimistic" until tonight when I went to work at my night job. He faded pretty quickly and had a pretty traumatic end. Diana updated me then called while I was in the box (dealing poker) to say she thought he was dying. She texted me five minutes later to say he had passed. She was really upset (duh) and I came home to dispose of the body properly and tend to her. I bawled pretty good for quite some time and am amazed at how quickly I let myself care for the little guy.
There are some other issues which I would like to mention but now is not the time. I also need to see who will be reading this blog before I give people who have extreme passive-aggressive tendencies ammo to frustrate me with.
Anyway, I think I'm going to go have a drink - ok, another drink - and try to drown the sorrows a bit. I hope I'm back on here soon... in the meantime, sorry for the ultra-selfish post. If anyone else reads this, I hope you know it did me some good even if it wasn't very entertaining for you.
Tonight is more of a therapeutic blog and not quite the sports rant that I've done on here.
Rudy died.
(Who?!?!?)
Rudy. Rudy was the runt piglet of a litter born yesterday at The ACES ranch. The ACES is a private K-12 school for students with special needs that has a ranch for animal therapy. One of the pigs had a litter and we were there to witness. We've raised two other pigs by hand and although we were hesitant, we knew the runt wouldn't have made it through the night on his own. We took him home and fed him, wrapped him in a blanket, took him to bed and Diana slept (kinda) with this baby pig the size of a hamster by her neck because he liked the warmth and her pulse. When she left this morning I took over and got to bond. Basically, we fed him every half-hour and he was almost always in our arms throughout the day.
He seemed to be doing ok overall, though we both were "cautiously optimistic" until tonight when I went to work at my night job. He faded pretty quickly and had a pretty traumatic end. Diana updated me then called while I was in the box (dealing poker) to say she thought he was dying. She texted me five minutes later to say he had passed. She was really upset (duh) and I came home to dispose of the body properly and tend to her. I bawled pretty good for quite some time and am amazed at how quickly I let myself care for the little guy.
There are some other issues which I would like to mention but now is not the time. I also need to see who will be reading this blog before I give people who have extreme passive-aggressive tendencies ammo to frustrate me with.
Anyway, I think I'm going to go have a drink - ok, another drink - and try to drown the sorrows a bit. I hope I'm back on here soon... in the meantime, sorry for the ultra-selfish post. If anyone else reads this, I hope you know it did me some good even if it wasn't very entertaining for you.
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