Berkman for President!

I never thought of myself as a big Lance Berkman fan. I always thought he was a good player who seemed likeable. Not ever the best at his position or in the game but borderline-elite in his prime.

The reason I write this is a blog post on grantland.com today that when reading it comes across as somewhat mocking Berkman, saying he "has been in the category of athletes who genuinely believe they were as good as one of their more buzzed-about teammates... Lance is a two-time member of this club, first as an Astro with Jeff Bagwell and currently as a Cardinal with Albert Pujols. Comparing Bagwell and Pujols' numbers with Berkman, it seems insane for him to think he's as good, if not better."

The biggest issue I have with this blog is there is absolutely no substance to back this claim up. I don't remember EVER seeing anything that gave that impression whether it was an interview, a story, a clubhouse gripe, etc. I did a few Google searches (Lance Berkman jerk; Lance Berkman on Jeff Bagwell) and found nothing. I asked the writer, thinking maybe the evidence or links had been edited out. His response to me via twitter: "he wasn't picking up the phone this morning. line was busy." Now, at first, I wasn't quite sure what he meant by this. I thought maybe he misunderstood my question, but as I thought about it more, I realized he was probably just mocking me for questioning his blog post. Maybe I'm wrong and missing the joke or the point. Either way, I feel when you say someone is firmly entrenched in a club of some sorts, you probably should have seen the membership card.

Then, as I thought about it, I wondered how far apart Berkman was from Bagwell when they played together. That's really the only time period you can count when comparing in this fashion. Although Bagwell at his peak was a historic hitter, they played together for the first five full seasons of Berkman's career and the last five of Bagwell's.

Lance Berkman Batting Stats for Years 2000 to 2004

Year	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2000-2004	HOU	741	3142	2590	506	792	193	17	152	520	35	25	489	521	.306	.420	.569	.989	149
Average		148	628	518	101	158	39	3	30	104	7	5	98	104
per 162 games		163	689	568	111	174	43	4	34	114	8	6	108	115

Jeff Bagwell Batting Stats for Years 2000 to 2004

Year	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2000-2004	HOU	794	3508	2938	585	842	170	11	183	549	44	20	498	631	.287	.395	.539	.934	134
Average		159	702	588	117	168	34	2	37	110	9	4	100	126
per 162 games		162	716	600	120	172	35	3	38	112	9	5	102	129

In only their first full season together did Jeff Bagwell have a higher OPS (1.039 to .949). Every other season they played together, Lance Berkman was - by most statistical accounts - a better hitter. So, I guess what I'm saying is if Berkman DID think he was a better player than Bagwell during their time together, it's possibly because he WAS. Go figure.

Also, the other player Berkman was compared to? Albert Pujols? His slashline this year: .299/.366/.541; Berkman's was .301/.412/.547. Again, I don't know that Berkman feels he's as good as Pujols, but for this season - their only season together - he was.

This post was written with statistics from baseball-reference.com and information from the usually awesome Grantland.com and writer Rembert Browne's post here: http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/8186/lance-berkman-finally-right-about-lance-berkman

An Indecent Proposal

There is almost no worse feeling in fantasy football than to see one of your early-round draft picks run into a mascot and wreck his knee in the month of September. One feeling that IS worse, however, is to see another stud you own get carted off the field the very next week. Your #1 running back (Jamaal Charles - 1st Rd), gone for the year. #1 receiver (Kenny Britt - 4th Rd) - same fate.

Unfortunately, both injuries happened early in their respective games and I lost those weeks partially due to their minimal opportunities. The other primary reason I lost was a deficiency at tight end. I scored 3 points with my TE the first three weeks combined.

The one position that I had excellent depth was quarterback. I took Aaron Rodgers with my 2nd round pick - ecstatic that he was still available at that point. I also was lucky enough to get both Matthew Stafford late and Josh Freeman, who was still available in the next-to-last round. I needed to make a move.

I had good depth at both RB and WR, but I was worried that I didn't have a true #1 anymore. Some of my other high picks (Frank Gore & Dwayne Bowe) had disappeared at least two of the three weeks and did not look like they could be counted on to carry my team. I knew to have any real shot at coming back - I needed to make a big move. I knew I would not be able to get equal value for Stafford. Although I think he will perform close to Rodgers most weeks - and through three weeks, he had outscored Rodgers - he would not bring the same return that Rodgers would. I decided I would try and trade Rodgers for a top-flight RB or WR. The only problem was, the only teams that had a need for a QB did not have anyone I wanted. I briefly discussed Rodgers for Ray Rice but was quickly shot down. I also proposed Rodgers for Jones-Drew but was rejected. Those were the only two RB I felt would outscore my current backs enough to make a trade worth it. I had two choices - I could keep my roster intact, wasting one top 5 QB every week on my bench or I could go for broke.

The movie "Moneyball", though not entirely true to the book and the premise, delves into taking advantage of "market inefficiencies". In it's simplest form, it is when current prices do not reflect actual or future value to the organization or the actual information. A better reference point is the book "The Extra 2%" by Jonah Keri which is also about finding gains in players other organizations undervalue but in broader terms, describes how the Tampa Bay Rays used ANY imbalance or advantage they could to gain even the slightest edge. I decided I would look to take advantage of a market inefficiency. I would also use basic math to find arbitrage in a deal.

Rob Gronkowski of the Patriots was the #1 TE by a margin of 20 points through three weeks. He had been consistently targeted and effective for a top offense that loves to throw the ball. He also plays for a coach that when he finds a strength will continue to use it to his advantage - the two-TE setup along with Wes Welker in the slot is very difficult to cover for most of today's defensive schemes and his targets had increased three consecutive weeks. "Gronk" had outscored my TEs by 13, 20 and 22 the first three weeks. Rodgers overall had been outscored by Stafford by four points. If I had Gronkowski in my lineup and had used Stafford all three games instead of Rodgers, my record would be 2-0-1 instead of 1-2. By trading Rodgers for Gronkowski, I was causing a NET GAIN in my points each week. Was it risky? Absolutely. Could it backfire? Yes, but by outscoring the AVERAGE TE by nine points every week and not losing any points by switching quarterbacks, Gronkowski was considerably more valuable to MY team than Rodgers at the time.

I know some may look at this and say, "Well, that's a small sample size and Stafford won't outscore Rodgers the rest of the way. Look at what Rodgers did this Sunday!" That may be fair, but how much will he outscore him by on an AVERAGE week. Sunday's game was a freak occurrence. Nobody will score 48 points consistently. Even taking into account the outlier game that Rodgers had, he has outscored Stafford by an average of seven points. If, for the rest of the season that holds true (it will more likely be 3-4 points/week) and Gronkowski averages 12 points per game which was 10 more than my current waiver wire TE strategy, I have still made a trade that improved my team in two ways. I have increased my net average total per week AND have a larger advantage at a specific position over my opponent. Just like the stocks, past performance is not an indicator of future results and that bore fruit this week when Gronkowski was shut down by the Raiders and Rodgers had a career game against the Broncos. That'll happen, but due to the injuries to my star players, I felt by staying put I guaranteed myself no shot at the playoffs - I had to think outside the box and I still like the trade I made.

Statistics from ESPN were used in this post as well as general information from Moneyball and The Extra 2%. If you only read one of these books (you should read both), read the latter.

I'm back, baby!

Over the past week, while fighting off bronchitis and the flu, I found myself falling into a funk. I figured it was a combination of my sickness (right now, I spent five minutes trying to come up with a witty "feeling like... " but no analogy I could come up with short of dog's ass fit adequately and I didn't even think that quite fit) and the stress of my current situation and the feelings that inevitably go along with it.

What I didn't even consider is that my funk could by explained simply by the fact that I couldn't do my pushups at night.

Up until last Monday, when I really started to feel terrible, I would do pushups every night before bed. I have to give credit here, my coworker Hugo Lujan is a competitive bodybuilder and looks amazing. I asked him a way to build up my arms at home and he suggested the nightly pushup routine. I'll never forget when he said, "Within a week or two, if you stick to it you won't be able to go to bed without doing them. They become addictive." I shrugged that off. I love being active and playing sports, but I've never been a workout guy. Don't like running, don't like working out for the most part.

I started about a month ago with two sets - the first set was 20; the second, 15. I didn't feel sore after but my shoulder bothered me a bit while I was doing it and I didn't want to push it. My goal (and Hugo's goal for me) is to get to 100 pushups per night. Each night, regardless if I had been out, been drinking, been doing whatever, I came home, either put on the "workout" channel on DirecTV or queued up some songs on Spotify and did my pushups. After a few days, my shoulder didn't hurt so I moved up to sets of 20 and 20. Approximately each week since then I've moved up five per week and last week before I fell ill, I moved up to 30 and 25.

Then I got sick. My first night, I forced my way through the pushups because I refused to believe I was really sick and just blamed stress. The next six nights, this was not an option. There were times I couldn't make it down the stairs to make tea, let alone do pushups. So over the weekend, I really started to feel down. I was slowly feeling better physically and got out of the house, but I was just sad and upset. I had a hard time feeling good about myself, my situation, even my new apartment. Today, I still have the cough from the bronchitis, but for the most part I feel good yet I felt terrible. There were exceptions, I have some great people in my life who put smiles on my face and I appreciate them immensely, but I was feeling very low.

Tonight, I said, "I'm doing my pushups". I'm not about to let myself go. I've dropped 48 pounds in the last nine months and there's no way I'm ever being lethargic, inactive or unhealthy again (like I've been forced to be the past week). I put on my tunes and planned on taking a couple extra sets because of the time off, but making sure to get in my 55. First set, 20. OK, I told myself, your strength isn't back all the way, don't get frustrated. Second set, 20. The arms were feeling a bit trembly, but 15 more was all I had left. My next set, 10. Oh, no! What did I do? Is my body still weak from being sick? Did I lose that much ground? New song hits (99 Problems, for what it's worth) and I'm determined. I did 12 crunches and found a second wind. 4th set, 15 more. We blew past 55 but it took double the sets and the song just started. I decided I wanted to hit 80. 12 more crunches and I'm feeling great. This is the "high" that I had fallen in love with. One more set of 15 left. I blew through the first 12 and the last three had that sweet burn that I never thought I would enjoy. 80 pushups.

You know what happened next? I felt amazing. I felt clarity. I felt peace. Everything made sense again. Even my chest and sinuses felt better. Whatever amazing endorphins go through your body when you work out each night, when you deprive your brain of that after a few days, I think it rebels. Mine certainly did. So if you're feeling in a funk - break out a few pushups or go for a run. You might be amazed how much better you feel after.

Jack of all trades... master of - any?

The bio I had for my original twitter account said, "Jack of all trades, master of none". There are times when this is a blessing and times when it is a curse.

I've been lucky enough to have a plethora of different experiences in my life and made money while experiencing them. Everything from overnight security at a Christmas Tree lot on the Upper East Side (86th in between 2nd & 3rd) to sportswriter for a regional newspaper to a musician and poker player. I've learned a lot about many different things, but what is my specialty?

If you ask me what I do BEST, I would probably say communicate. It's why I've always done very well in sales and customer service (man, I could sell an $80. Christmas tree to a drunk couple at 3 AM like NOBODY!) but also done well with behavioral health and writing.

It seems like in today's world, everyone has a niche. I can do a lot of different things for many people, but does that help me fit in anywhere if I'm going to work for someone else? When you're self-employed (been there, too), that is a plus because you're not outsourcing everything that needs to be done and you don't have to stop multiple times a day to learn what to do in different situations - but when you're in the market for a job, how do you explain to a company that your core competency is... a little bit of everything? Your primary benefit to your employers is you're always the one who can be handed off-the-wall assignments and tackle them effectively. That's hard to describe in a cover letter or resume.