The Latter-day Rush to Judgment

On The Triangle blog of Grantland today, Jonah Keri examines the resurgence OR depending on your viewpoint, the continued excellence of David Ortiz. About 25% of the blog post discusses the accusations (most recently by the Boston Globe) and circumstantial evidence linking Ortiz to PEDs. Though Keri (one of my favorite baseball writers) correctly takes the Globe story to task for focusing on the gun that does not have any smoke emanating whatsoever (the 14-game small sample size vs. the previous two seasons that seemed... different), we must be reminded... that we asked for this.

In the wake of the PED scandal in Major League Baseball, one of the most frequently cried arguments and criticisms was the sport media's complicity during this time. We derided the writers and analysts who fawned over Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa and Nook Logan - ok, maybe not him so much - without question. We, the baseball-loving public that turned our own eyes, made The Fourth Estate the co-conspirator in the alleged smearing of our National Pastime. We demanded this not happen again and many people expressed betrayal and naivete mostly due to feeling duped after spending $120 on a shiny new Eric Gagne jersey.

Fast-forward a few years and Ortiz is putting up numbers that belong in the heart of the "steroids era". At his age and build, he should not be experiencing a statistical renaissance eerily similar to his original eye-opening rise to prominence in his age 26-29 seasons. Ortiz claims it is unfair for us to question the reasons for this and his defenders want to once again do their best impression of an ostrich, but they must be reminded that - right or wrong - this is what they wanted. For Ortiz, he only has his peers, and possibly himself, to thank.

Berkman for President!

I never thought of myself as a big Lance Berkman fan. I always thought he was a good player who seemed likeable. Not ever the best at his position or in the game but borderline-elite in his prime.

The reason I write this is a blog post on grantland.com today that when reading it comes across as somewhat mocking Berkman, saying he "has been in the category of athletes who genuinely believe they were as good as one of their more buzzed-about teammates... Lance is a two-time member of this club, first as an Astro with Jeff Bagwell and currently as a Cardinal with Albert Pujols. Comparing Bagwell and Pujols' numbers with Berkman, it seems insane for him to think he's as good, if not better."

The biggest issue I have with this blog is there is absolutely no substance to back this claim up. I don't remember EVER seeing anything that gave that impression whether it was an interview, a story, a clubhouse gripe, etc. I did a few Google searches (Lance Berkman jerk; Lance Berkman on Jeff Bagwell) and found nothing. I asked the writer, thinking maybe the evidence or links had been edited out. His response to me via twitter: "he wasn't picking up the phone this morning. line was busy." Now, at first, I wasn't quite sure what he meant by this. I thought maybe he misunderstood my question, but as I thought about it more, I realized he was probably just mocking me for questioning his blog post. Maybe I'm wrong and missing the joke or the point. Either way, I feel when you say someone is firmly entrenched in a club of some sorts, you probably should have seen the membership card.

Then, as I thought about it, I wondered how far apart Berkman was from Bagwell when they played together. That's really the only time period you can count when comparing in this fashion. Although Bagwell at his peak was a historic hitter, they played together for the first five full seasons of Berkman's career and the last five of Bagwell's.

Lance Berkman Batting Stats for Years 2000 to 2004

Year	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2000-2004	HOU	741	3142	2590	506	792	193	17	152	520	35	25	489	521	.306	.420	.569	.989	149
Average		148	628	518	101	158	39	3	30	104	7	5	98	104
per 162 games		163	689	568	111	174	43	4	34	114	8	6	108	115

Jeff Bagwell Batting Stats for Years 2000 to 2004

Year	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2000-2004	HOU	794	3508	2938	585	842	170	11	183	549	44	20	498	631	.287	.395	.539	.934	134
Average		159	702	588	117	168	34	2	37	110	9	4	100	126
per 162 games		162	716	600	120	172	35	3	38	112	9	5	102	129

In only their first full season together did Jeff Bagwell have a higher OPS (1.039 to .949). Every other season they played together, Lance Berkman was - by most statistical accounts - a better hitter. So, I guess what I'm saying is if Berkman DID think he was a better player than Bagwell during their time together, it's possibly because he WAS. Go figure.

Also, the other player Berkman was compared to? Albert Pujols? His slashline this year: .299/.366/.541; Berkman's was .301/.412/.547. Again, I don't know that Berkman feels he's as good as Pujols, but for this season - their only season together - he was.

This post was written with statistics from baseball-reference.com and information from the usually awesome Grantland.com and writer Rembert Browne's post here: http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/8186/lance-berkman-finally-right-about-lance-berkman