It seems everyone has written about the relationship and negotiations between the New York Yankees - mostly Brian Cashman and the Steinbrenner Bros. - and Derek Jeter and his agent, Casey Close. I didn't think I would have much unique to add until I was observing a debate about Jeter's worth to the Yankees going forward. I'm surprised at how many Yankee fans and baseball fans in general think the Yankees should give in and pay "El Capitan" whatever he wants for services rendered and not punish him for one bad season despite his advanced age.
If Jeter were 31 and coming off his worst season, I don't think the Yankees would be giving pause to paying him like an elite ballplayer. The problem is, the chances are high that he is not an elite ballplayer anymore. To give him four years or more at $20M plus, would exacerbate an already problematic budget situation in the years ahead.
The Yankees have $95M committed for the 2013 season to four players - Mark Teixeira (33 that season), A.J. Burnett (36), C.C. Sabathia (33) and Alex Rodriguez (38). There is a reasonable chance that they will also be paying the replacements for Burnett in the rotation and Rodriguez at 3B if he moves to DH. With the Yankees, it's never safe to assume who will be signed long-term, but it would be a worthwhile bet to say they will be paying large truckloads of cash to Robinson Cano, Cliff Lee and any other Free Agent they go after over the next three seasons.
There are only three active players born in the same year as Jeter (1974) with a higher career OPS (on-base avg. plus slugging pct.). We'll get to the names in a bit, but what we're trying to do is take away the name and just look at the anticipated value. They have all been All-Stars multiple times, have all made at least $13M in a season, all had a higher OPS last season than Jeter, but all had lower OPS marks than their career mark. Despite having better offensive statistics throughout their career AND last season, nobody is lining up to pay these players anything near the amount the Yankees are reportedly offering Jeter ($45M/3Yrs) because it is recognized they are in the twilight of their career with declining skills.
Two of the players were paid $7M LESS in 2010 than they were in their peak. The third is in this FA class with Jeter and will absolutely take a marked pay cut to play in 2011. The players? Two former teammates that the Yankees quickly cut bait with in previous years when it was generally assumed their best years were behind them. Hideki Matsui - let loose after winning World Series MVP in 2009 - and Bobby Abreu, who was dumped after a 20HR/20SB, .296/.371/.471 season in 2008. The third player - Magglio Ordonez - is coming off a season-ending injury which complicates the comparison, but was on pace for 20+ HR and a .300 BA.
The Yankees were not wrong for cutting ties with these players to get younger and to avoid paying players for past performance instead of future returns. It was the right move. The problem is the name - Derek Jeter. The Captain. Mr. November. Author of "The Flip Play" and "The Dive". Master of his "patented jump throw".
The more accolades & nicknames you receive as a ballplayer, the less likely you are to live up to them in the future.
Someone involved in the online debate mentioned earlier (Patrick Gallagher - host of The D League Show - www.thedleague.com) said he wouldn't give those players the $20M/year he would give Jeter because "they have not been consistent. Last season was Jeter's 1st bad season in some time." If you took a poll of Yankee fans - or maybe even people in the game - they would generally agree with that assessment (I did before investigating) and justify the higher price tag for Jeter. A closer look at the numbers, however, flush out the truth.
In 13 full seasons, Abreu has had 12 seasons with an OPS of .800+. In 10 full seasons (and three partial seasons due to injury), Ordonez has only fallen short of an .800+ OPS once. In six full seasons, Matsui has eclipsed .800 in every one but his rookie year. Pretty consistent, eh? In 15 seasons, Jeter has failed to reach an .800 OPS four times. There goes that argument.
Sometimes a closer look reveals all the wrinkles you don't want to see. $20M+ for more than three or four years? If it weren't for the name Jeter, you wouldn't even think twice.
As always, baseball-reference was used extensively for the statistics found in this blog. In addition, ESPN Insider Keith Law's top 50 Free Agents was referred to for information. Special thanks to Patrick Gallagher and Megan Marshall for their entertaining debate that gave birth to this blog idea.
