Despite going into the All-Star break with the best record in baseball and the largest division lead they have had since 2004 (also 7.0 games), there is reason for concern for the New York Yankees.
The concern is not - and almost never is - about making the playoffs. With the addition of a second wildcard team, the Yankees look to remain a postseason presence for years to come. As is always the case in New York, it's not about making the playoffs, it is about winning in the playoffs and this is where the Yankees may do what they've done ten of the last 11 years... fail.
Offensively, despite the frequent cries, the issue is neither "relying" on the long ball or an "inability" to hit with runners in scoring position. Long known for their ability to wear down a pitching staff, the Yankees are on pace for 1168 strikeouts. This would be their highest K total since 2002 and the third consecutive year that number has increased. The Yankees are also on pace for 575 walks. The only year since 2001 they have failed to eclipse 625 was 2008, also the only year the Yankees have not made the playoffs in this century. These combine to put the Yankees on pace for their lowest on-base average in over ten years.
As the core of the Yankees offense continues to age (32.7 average hitters' age - highest in team history) and their bats continue to slow, it makes sense that they must make their decision to swing earlier, thus decreasing their pitch recognition ability leading to increased swings and misses and decreased pitches out of the strike zone taken. Mark Teixeira (.334) is currently in his fourth year of a sliding OBA. Derek Jeter (.354) and Alex Rodriguez (.357) both are getting on base at a rate 28 points lower than their career marks. Raul Ibanez - getting way more action than the Yankees were hoping due to Brett Gardner's injury - has a ghastly .298 OBA. Even the relative spring chicken Nick Swisher (.336) is heading toward his lowest OBA as a Yankee.
Over the course of a season, when facing weaker teams with diluted pitching staffs, the deficiencies are not as glaring. However, when facing the best pitching staffs as you do in the postseason, along with no fifth starter, the inability to run up pitch counts and get on base will hurt. In a not-so-small sample size of 27 games, the Yankees currently average 3.9 runs per game against likely postseason opponents (Rangers, White Sox, Rays and... Orioles (!)) while scoring an average of 5.3 runs against all other teams.
Most Yankee fans cannot tell you how many 100 win seasons the Yankees have had in the last 11 years (four) because that is not what's important to them. Ask them how many times the Yankees have been Champions and they are far more likely to know the answer - an answer that will likely remain unchanged come November 1.
